Radnički Sombor 0–2 Stari Grad: Result & Stats

Radnički Sombor

FT

0 – 2

Stari Grad

9/25/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radnički Sombor61%

×Draw21%

Stari Grad18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički SomborExpected goals in this matchStari Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.02

Radnički Sombor

2.05

Stari Grad

1.02

Radnički Sombor creates 101% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

2.16

creates per match

1.09

0.94

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Radnički Sombor

2.16

Stari Grad

1.09

allows per match

Radnički Sombor

0.94

Stari Grad

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Stari Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw

82%

Radnički Sombor or Stari Grad

79%

Draw or Stari Grad

39%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+

37%

Stari Grad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals

87%

Radnički Sombor 2+ goals

61%

Radnički Sombor 3+ goals

33%

Stari Grad 1+ goals

64%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

27%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)

77%

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.05

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more

61%

level

21%

Stari Grad scores more

18%

Radnički Sombor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff