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Stari Grad vs OFK Vršac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Stari Grad
Stari Grad
FT
2 – 5
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
10/16/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Igralište OFK Stari Grad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stari Grad40%
×Draw24%
OFK Vršac36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stari Grad
1.60
OFK Vršac
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 43 away

creates per match

Stari Grad
1.74
OFK Vršac
1.65

allows per match

Stari Grad
1.38
OFK Vršac
1.47

finishing

Stari Grad+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stari Grad ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stari Grad or draw
64%
Stari Grad or OFK Vršac
76%
Draw or OFK Vršac
60%

Winning margin

Stari Grad wins by 2+
20%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stari Grad 1+ goals
80%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
47%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
22%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
78%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
44%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stari Grad (draw refunded)
53%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stari Grad at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stari Grad attack 1.74 + OFK Vršac defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

OFK Vršac attack 1.65 + Stari Grad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stari Grad scores more
40%
level
24%
OFK Vršac scores more
36%

Stari Grad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stari Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stari Grad vs OFK Vršac

OFK Vršac beat Stari Grad 5-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište OFK Stari Grad in Bačka Palanka.