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OFK Vršac vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
3 – 0
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
11/21/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 18Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

OFK Vršac64%
×Draw20%
Stari Grad16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
2.06
Stari Grad
0.92

OFK Vršac creates 124% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 34 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
2.19
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.74
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
84%
OFK Vršac or Stari Grad
80%
Draw or Stari Grad
36%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
39%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
87%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
61%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
34%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
60%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
23%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
80%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 2.19 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.06

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + OFK Vršac defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
64%
level
20%
Stari Grad scores more
16%

OFK Vršac at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFK Vršac vs Stari Grad

OFK Vršac beat Stari Grad 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.