Stari Grad 1–2 Hajduk 1912 Kula: Result & Stats

Stari Grad

FT

1 – 2

Hajduk 1912 Kula

9/4/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Igralište OFK Stari Grad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stari Grad48%

×Draw24%

Hajduk 1912 Kula28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stari GradExpected goals in this matchHajduk 1912 Kula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.28

Stari Grad

1.75

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.28

Stari Grad creates 37% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 72 away

1.74

creates per match

1.18

1.38

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Stari Grad

1.74

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.18

allows per match

Stari Grad

1.38

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stari Grad ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Stari Grad or draw

72%

Stari Grad or Hajduk 1912 Kula

76%

Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula

52%

Winning margin

Stari Grad wins by 2+

26%

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stari Grad 1+ goals

83%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

52%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

25%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals

72%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals

37%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

63%

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stari Grad at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stari Grad attack 1.74 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Stari Grad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stari Grad scores more

48%

level

24%

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more

28%

Stari Grad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stari Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff