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Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
FT
5 – 0
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
3/26/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula51%
×Draw23%
Stari Grad26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.77
Stari Grad
1.19

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 49% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.61
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.28
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw
74%
Hajduk 1912 Kula or Stari Grad
77%
Draw or Stari Grad
49%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
28%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
83%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
53%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
26%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
70%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
33%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
66%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
51%
level
23%
Stari Grad scores more
26%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Stari Grad

Hajduk 1912 Kula beat Stari Grad 5-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Milan Sredanović in Kula.