Stari Grad 4–3 FK Becej: Result & Stats

Stari Grad

FT

4 – 3

FK Becej

4/24/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Igralište OFK Stari Grad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stari Grad57%

×Draw21%

FK Becej23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stari GradExpected goals in this matchFK Becej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.27

Stari Grad

2.12

FK Becej

1.27

Stari Grad creates 67% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 88 away

1.74

creates per match

1.16

1.38

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Stari Grad

1.74

FK Becej

1.16

allows per match

Stari Grad

1.38

FK Becej

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stari Grad+0.00on par

FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stari Grad ↓

FK Becej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Stari Grad or draw

77%

Stari Grad or FK Becej

79%

Draw or FK Becej

43%

Winning margin

Stari Grad wins by 2+

34%

FK Becej wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stari Grad 1+ goals

88%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

62%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

35%

FK Becej 1+ goals

72%

FK Becej 2+ goals

36%

FK Becej 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

72%

FK Becej (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stari Grad at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stari Grad attack 1.74 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.12

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Stari Grad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stari Grad scores more

57%

level

21%

FK Becej scores more

23%

Stari Grad at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Stari Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff