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FK Becej vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
1 – 2
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
11/13/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Becej49%
×Draw23%
Stari Grad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.81
Stari Grad
1.33

FK Becej creates 36% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 34 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
72%
FK Becej or Stari Grad
77%
Draw or Stari Grad
51%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
27%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
84%
FK Becej 2+ goals
54%
FK Becej 3+ goals
27%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
74%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
38%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
63%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.81

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Becej scores more
49%
level
23%
Stari Grad scores more
28%

FK Becej at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Stari Grad

Stari Grad beat FK Becej 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.