Stari Grad 3–0 Dunav Stari Banovci: Result & Stats

Stari Grad

FT

3 – 0

Dunav Stari Banovci

8/22/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Igralište OFK Stari Grad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Stari Grad66%

×Draw19%

Dunav Stari Banovci15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stari GradExpected goals in this matchDunav Stari Banovci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.97

Stari Grad

2.25

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.97

Stari Grad creates 132% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.74

creates per match

0.57

1.38

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Stari Grad

1.74

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.57

allows per match

Stari Grad

1.38

Dunav Stari Banovci

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stari Grad ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stari Grad or draw

85%

Stari Grad or Dunav Stari Banovci

81%

Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci

34%

Winning margin

Stari Grad wins by 2+

43%

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Stari Grad 1+ goals

89%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

65%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

39%

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

62%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

25%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

81%

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stari Grad at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stari Grad attack 1.74 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.25

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Stari Grad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Stari Grad scores more

66%

level

19%

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

15%

Stari Grad at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Stari Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff