Dunav Stari Banovci 0–0 Stari Grad: Result & Stats

Dunav Stari Banovci

FT

0 – 0

Stari Grad

3/14/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 21Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci40%

×Draw24%

Stari Grad36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav Stari BanovciExpected goals in this matchStari Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.52

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.62

Stari Grad

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

1.30

creates per match

1.09

1.96

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.30

Stari Grad

1.09

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.96

Stari Grad

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Stari Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw

64%

Dunav Stari Banovci or Stari Grad

76%

Draw or Stari Grad

60%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

20%

Stari Grad wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

80%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

48%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

22%

Stari Grad 1+ goals

78%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

45%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

53%

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

40%

level

24%

Stari Grad scores more

36%

Dunav Stari Banovci at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dunav Stari Banovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff