Stari Grad 3–0 Bačka 1901: Result & Stats

Stari Grad

FT

3 – 0

Bačka 1901

11/28/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Igralište OFK Stari Grad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Stari Grad50%

×Draw23%

Bačka 190127%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stari GradExpected goals in this matchBačka 1901

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.32

Stari Grad

1.87

Bačka 1901

1.32

Stari Grad creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

1.74

creates per match

1.26

1.38

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Stari Grad

1.74

Bačka 1901

1.26

allows per match

Stari Grad

1.38

Bačka 1901

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stari Grad ↓

Bačka 1901 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stari Grad or draw

73%

Stari Grad or Bačka 1901

77%

Draw or Bačka 1901

50%

Winning margin

Stari Grad wins by 2+

28%

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stari Grad 1+ goals

85%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

56%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

29%

Bačka 1901 1+ goals

73%

Bačka 1901 2+ goals

38%

Bačka 1901 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

65%

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stari Grad at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stari Grad attack 1.74 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.87

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Stari Grad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stari Grad scores more

50%

level

23%

Bačka 1901 scores more

27%

Stari Grad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stari Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff