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Bačka 1901 vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
FT
1 – 8
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
6/5/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 38Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bačka 190151%
×Draw23%
Stari Grad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bačka 1901
1.77
Stari Grad
1.17

Bačka 1901 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bačka 1901
1.61
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

Bačka 1901
1.25
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

Bačka 1901+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bačka 1901 ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bačka 1901 or draw
75%
Bačka 1901 or Stari Grad
77%
Draw or Stari Grad
49%

Winning margin

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
28%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bačka 1901 1+ goals
83%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
53%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
26%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
69%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
33%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
67%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bačka 1901 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bačka 1901 attack 1.61 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Bačka 1901 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bačka 1901 scores more
51%
level
23%
Stari Grad scores more
25%

Bačka 1901 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bačka 1901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bačka 1901 vs Stari Grad

Stari Grad beat Bačka 1901 8-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije in Subotica.