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Stargard Szczeciński vs Legionovia Legionowo — II Liga - East 2019

Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
10/26/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński48%
×Draw23%
Legionovia Legionowo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stargard Szczeciński
1.77
Legionovia Legionowo
1.31

Stargard Szczeciński creates 35% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.24
Legionovia Legionowo
1.06

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.57
Legionovia Legionowo
2.29

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw
72%
Stargard Szczeciński or Legionovia Legionowo
77%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
52%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
26%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
83%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
53%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
26%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
73%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
38%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
63%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.24 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more
48%
level
23%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
28%

Stargard Szczeciński at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stargard Szczeciński vs Legionovia Legionowo

Stargard Szczeciński beat Legionovia Legionowo 2-1 in II Liga - East on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Stargard Szczeciński.