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Legionovia Legionowo vs Stargard Szczeciński — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
7/15/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 32Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo36%
×Draw26%
Stargard Szczeciński38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.34
Stargard Szczeciński
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
Stargard Szczeciński
1.31

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
Stargard Szczeciński
1.81

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Stargard Szczeciński →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
62%
Legionovia Legionowo or Stargard Szczeciński
74%
Draw or Stargard Szczeciński
64%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
16%
Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
74%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
39%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
15%
Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
75%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
40%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
48%
Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Stargard Szczeciński away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.31 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
36%
level
26%
Stargard Szczeciński scores more
38%

Stargard Szczeciński at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs Stargard Szczeciński

Stargard Szczeciński beat Legionovia Legionowo 1-0 in II Liga - East on July 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.