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Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
11/9/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński40%
×Draw23%
Lech Poznań II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stargard Szczeciński
1.73
Lech Poznań II
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.80
Lech Poznań II
1.82

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.46
Lech Poznań II
1.65

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par
Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Lech Poznań II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw
63%
Stargard Szczeciński or Lech Poznań II
77%
Draw or Lech Poznań II
60%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
21%
Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
82%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
52%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
25%
Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
81%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
49%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
52%
Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 85 matches

Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lech Poznań II attack 1.82 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more
40%
level
23%
Lech Poznań II scores more
37%

Stargard Szczeciński at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Stargard Szczeciński 2–1 Lech Poznań II

Stargard Szczeciński beat Lech Poznań II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Stargard Szczeciński.