Lech Poznań II 1–1 Stargard Szczeciński

Lech Poznań II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stargard Szczeciński

K. Delikat 82'

K. Zaborski 10'

4/4/2026

III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 25Amica Wronki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lech Poznań II44%

×Draw23%

Stargard Szczeciński33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań IIExpected goals in this matchStargard Szczeciński

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.56

Lech Poznań II

1.83

Stargard Szczeciński

1.56

Lech Poznań II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 83 away

2.06

creates per match

1.80

1.32

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lech Poznań II

2.06

Stargard Szczeciński

1.80

allows per match

Lech Poznań II

1.32

Stargard Szczeciński

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Stargard Szczeciński →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw

67%

Lech Poznań II or Stargard Szczeciński

77%

Draw or Stargard Szczeciński

56%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

24%

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

84%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

54%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

28%

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals

79%

Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals

46%

Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

57%

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Stargard Szczeciński away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 2.06 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.83

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more

44%

level

23%

Stargard Szczeciński scores more

33%

Lech Poznań II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

K. Zaborski

82'

K. Delikat

Lech

Stargard

Manager: G. Wojtkowiak

Manager: A. Topolski