Stargard Szczeciński 2–1 Gryf Wejherowo

Stargard Szczeciński

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gryf Wejherowo

P. Paczuk 71'

K. Sanocki 49'

F. Szewczyk 52'

9/7/2019

II Liga - East · Round 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński63%

×Draw20%

Gryf Wejherowo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stargard SzczecińskiExpected goals in this matchGryf Wejherowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.05

Stargard Szczeciński

2.21

Gryf Wejherowo

1.05

Stargard Szczeciński creates 110% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

1.24

creates per match

0.53

1.57

allows per match

3.18

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński

1.24

Gryf Wejherowo

0.53

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński

1.57

Gryf Wejherowo

3.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Gryf Wejherowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw

83%

Stargard Szczeciński or Gryf Wejherowo

80%

Draw or Gryf Wejherowo

37%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+

40%

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals

89%

Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals

65%

Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals

38%

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals

65%

Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals

28%

Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)

79%

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Gryf Wejherowo away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.24 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.21

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.53 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more

63%

level

20%

Gryf Wejherowo scores more

17%

Stargard Szczeciński at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

T. Kolus← M. Gabor

49'

K. Sanocki

52'

F. Szewczyk

65'

M. Cywiński← P. Kurbiel

69'

P. Czychowski← M. Goerke

71'

P. Paczuk

78'

M. Burkhardt← I. Biedrzycki

83'

M. Bochnak← K. Sanocki

90+3'

K. Jabłoński← P. Paczuk

Stargard

Gryf

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Sanocki

Karmański

⚽

▼

Paczuk

▼

Kurbiel

Manager: A. Topolski

65'▲M. Cywiński←▼P. Kurbiel

83'▲M. Bochnak←▼K. Sanocki

90+3'▲K. Jabłoński←▼P. Paczuk

Stargard Szczeciński substitutes

CywińskiBochnakJabłoński

Manager: L. Kowalski

46'▲T. Kolus←▼M. Gabor

69'▲P. Czychowski←▼M. Goerke

78'▲M. Burkhardt←▼I. Biedrzycki

Gryf Wejherowo substitutes

KolusCzychowskiBurkhardt

II Liga - East: Stargard Szczeciński 2–1 Gryf Wejherowo

Stargard Szczeciński beat Gryf Wejherowo 2-1 in II Liga - East on September 7, 2019.

Goals: K. Sanocki (49'), F. Szewczyk (52'), P. Paczuk (71').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Stargard Szczeciński.

Stargard Szczeciński vs Gryf Wejherowo — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Stargard Szczeciński 2–1 Gryf Wejherowo