Gryf Wejherowo 1–3 Stargard Szczeciński

Gryf Wejherowo

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Stargard Szczeciński

N. Sroka 87'

M. Bochnak 78'

W. Fadecki 74' (pen), 70' (pen)

6/13/2020

II Liga - East · Round 25Stadion WKS Gryf Wejherowo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gryf Wejherowo29%

×Draw23%

Stargard Szczeciński48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gryf WejherowoExpected goals in this matchStargard Szczeciński

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.75

Gryf Wejherowo

1.31

Stargard Szczeciński

1.75

Stargard Szczeciński creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

0.82

creates per match

1.31

2.18

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Gryf Wejherowo

0.82

Stargard Szczeciński

1.31

allows per match

Gryf Wejherowo

2.18

Stargard Szczeciński

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gryf Wejherowo ↓

Stargard Szczeciński →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Gryf Wejherowo or draw

52%

Gryf Wejherowo or Stargard Szczeciński

77%

Draw or Stargard Szczeciński

71%

Winning margin

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+

12%

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals

73%

Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals

38%

Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals

14%

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals

83%

Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals

52%

Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)

38%

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gryf Wejherowo at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Stargard Szczeciński away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.82 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.31 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gryf Wejherowo scores more

29%

level

23%

Stargard Szczeciński scores more

48%

Stargard Szczeciński at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

J. Ostrowski

36'

M. Gawron

39'

S. Nowicki

46'

D. Lisiecki← J. Godlewski

59'

K. Baranowski← D. Pilarski

59'

D. Polkowski← M. Gawron

64'

K. Przygoda← J. Pek

70'

W. Ferra

70'

W. FadeckiPenalty

73'

M. Slawek

74'

W. FadeckiPenalty

77'

M. Bochnak← K. Sanocki

77'

M. Kompanicki← P. Paczuk

78'

M. Bochnak

80'

K. Baranowski

80'

P. Bednarski← P. Łysiak

84'

N. Sroka← K. Kankowski

87'

N. Sroka

89'

P. Bednarski

Gryf

Stargard

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Kowalski

46'▲D. Lisiecki←▼J. Godlewski

59'▲K. Baranowski←▼D. Pilarski

64'▲K. Przygoda←▼J. Pek

84'▲N. Sroka←▼K. Kankowski

Gryf Wejherowo substitutes

LisieckiBaranowskiPrzygodaSroka

Manager: A. Topolski

59'▲D. Polkowski←▼M. Gawron

77'▲M. Bochnak←▼K. Sanocki

77'▲M. Kompanicki←▼P. Paczuk

80'▲P. Bednarski←▼P. Łysiak

Stargard Szczeciński substitutes

PolkowskiBochnakKompanickiBednarski