Stará Říše 2–3 Pelhřimov: Result & Stats

Stará Říše

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Pelhřimov

6/9/2024

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 29Stadion FSC Stará Říše

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Stará Říše45%

×Draw22%

Pelhřimov33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stará ŘíšeExpected goals in this matchPelhřimov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.63

Stará Říše

1.92

Pelhřimov

1.63

Stará Říše creates 18% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

1.80

creates per match

1.20

2.06

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Stará Říše

1.80

Pelhřimov

1.20

allows per match

Stará Říše

2.06

Pelhřimov

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par

Pelhřimov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Pelhřimov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw

67%

Stará Říše or Pelhřimov

78%

Draw or Pelhřimov

55%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+

25%

Pelhřimov wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals

85%

Stará Říše 2+ goals

57%

Stará Říše 3+ goals

30%

Pelhřimov 1+ goals

80%

Pelhřimov 2+ goals

48%

Pelhřimov 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)

57%

Pelhřimov (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Pelhřimov away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Pelhřimov defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pelhřimov attack 1.20 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stará Říše scores more

45%

level

22%

Pelhřimov scores more

33%

Stará Říše at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stará Říše will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff