Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pelhřimov vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Pelhřimov
Pelhřimov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
11/5/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 14Stadion TJ Spartak Pelhřimov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pelhřimov52%
×Draw22%
Stará Říše26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelhřimov
1.97
Stará Říše
1.32

Pelhřimov creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

creates per match

Pelhřimov
1.60
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Pelhřimov
1.70
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Pelhřimov+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelhřimov ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pelhřimov or draw
74%
Pelhřimov or Stará Říše
78%
Draw or Stará Říše
48%

Winning margin

Pelhřimov wins by 2+
30%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pelhřimov 1+ goals
86%
Pelhřimov 2+ goals
58%
Pelhřimov 3+ goals
31%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
73%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
38%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pelhřimov (draw refunded)
67%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelhřimov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelhřimov attack 1.60 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.97

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Pelhřimov defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pelhřimov scores more
52%
level
22%
Stará Říše scores more
26%

Pelhřimov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pelhřimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pelhřimov vs Stará Říše

Pelhřimov and Stará Říše drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Spartak Pelhřimov in Pelhřimov.