Stará Říše 3–0 Břeclav: Result & Stats

Stará Říše

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Břeclav

6/10/2023

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 26Stadion FSC Stará Říše

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Stará Říše48%

×Draw22%

Břeclav30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stará ŘíšeExpected goals in this matchBřeclav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.54

Stará Říše

1.97

Břeclav

1.54

Stará Říše creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

1.80

creates per match

1.03

2.06

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Stará Říše

1.80

Břeclav

1.03

allows per match

Stará Říše

2.06

Břeclav

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par

Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Břeclav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw

70%

Stará Říše or Břeclav

78%

Draw or Břeclav

52%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+

27%

Břeclav wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals

86%

Stará Říše 2+ goals

58%

Stará Říše 3+ goals

31%

Břeclav 1+ goals

79%

Břeclav 2+ goals

45%

Břeclav 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)

61%

Břeclav (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.97

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stará Říše scores more

48%

level

22%

Břeclav scores more

30%

Stará Říše at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stará Říše will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff