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Břeclav vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Břeclav
Břeclav
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 17Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Břeclav54%
×Draw23%
Stará Říše24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břeclav
1.86
Stará Říše
1.16

Břeclav creates 60% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 55 away

creates per match

Břeclav
1.39
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Břeclav
1.36
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw
76%
Břeclav or Stará Říše
77%
Draw or Stará Říše
46%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+
30%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals
84%
Břeclav 2+ goals
55%
Břeclav 3+ goals
28%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
69%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
32%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)
69%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.39 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Břeclav defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Břeclav scores more
54%
level
23%
Stará Říše scores more
24%

Břeclav at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Břeclav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Břeclav vs Stará Říše

Stará Říše beat Břeclav 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lesní ulice in Břeclav.