Stará Ľubovňa 2–1 Spišské Podhradie: Result & Stats

Stará Ľubovňa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Spišské Podhradie

6/1/2024

3. liga - East · East - 29Štadión MFK Goral Stará Ľubovňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Stará Ľubovňa80%

×Draw13%

Spišské Podhradie7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stará ĽubovňaExpected goals in this matchSpišské Podhradie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

0.72

Stará Ľubovňa

2.79

Spišské Podhradie

0.72

Stará Ľubovňa creates 288% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 65 away

2.71

creates per match

0.80

0.64

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Stará Ľubovňa

2.71

Spišské Podhradie

0.80

allows per match

Stará Ľubovňa

0.64

Spišské Podhradie

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Ľubovňa ↓

Spišské Podhradie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Stará Ľubovňa or draw

93%

Stará Ľubovňa or Spišské Podhradie

87%

Draw or Spišské Podhradie

20%

Winning margin

Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+

59%

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals

94%

Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals

76%

Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals

52%

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals

51%

Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals

16%

Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)

92%

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Ľubovňa at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Ľubovňa attack 2.71 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.79

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Stará Ľubovňa scores more

80%

level

13%

Spišské Podhradie scores more

7%

Stará Ľubovňa at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Stará Ľubovňa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff