Spišské Podhradie 3–3 Stará Ľubovňa: Result & Stats

Spišské Podhradie

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Stará Ľubovňa

11/5/2023

3. liga - East · East - 14Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spišské Podhradie37%

×Draw23%

Stará Ľubovňa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spišské PodhradieExpected goals in this matchStará Ľubovňa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.71

Spišské Podhradie

1.63

Stará Ľubovňa

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 14 away

1.47

creates per match

1.50

1.92

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Spišské Podhradie

1.47

Stará Ľubovňa

1.50

allows per match

Spišské Podhradie

1.92

Stará Ľubovňa

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišské Podhradie ↓

Stará Ľubovňa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Spišské Podhradie or draw

60%

Spišské Podhradie or Stará Ľubovňa

77%

Draw or Stará Ľubovňa

63%

Winning margin

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+

18%

Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals

80%

Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals

48%

Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals

22%

Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals

82%

Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals

51%

Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)

48%

Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišské Podhradie at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.92 · 64 matches

Stará Ľubovňa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišské Podhradie attack 1.47 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stará Ľubovňa attack 1.50 + Spišské Podhradie defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spišské Podhradie scores more

37%

level

23%

Stará Ľubovňa scores more

40%

Stará Ľubovňa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stará Ľubovňa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff