Stará Ľubovňa 1–2 Lokomotíva Zvolen: Result & Stats

Stará Ľubovňa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotíva Zvolen

11/8/2025

2. liga · Round 16Štadión MFK Goral Stará Ľubovňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Stará Ľubovňa43%

×Draw26%

Lokomotíva Zvolen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stará ĽubovňaExpected goals in this matchLokomotíva Zvolen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.19

Stará Ľubovňa

1.43

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.19

Stará Ľubovňa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 30 away

1.39

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Stará Ľubovňa

1.39

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.17

allows per match

Stará Ľubovňa

1.21

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Ľubovňa ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stará Ľubovňa or draw

69%

Stará Ľubovňa or Lokomotíva Zvolen

74%

Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen

57%

Winning margin

Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+

20%

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals

76%

Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals

42%

Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals

17%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

70%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

33%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)

58%

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Ľubovňa at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Ľubovňa attack 1.39 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.17 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stará Ľubovňa scores more

43%

level

26%

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

31%

Stará Ľubovňa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stará Ľubovňa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff