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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Stará Ľubovňa — 2. liga 2019

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Stará Ľubovňa
Stará Ľubovňa
10/26/20242. liga2. liga · Round 12Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen50%
×Draw25%
Stará Ľubovňa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.59
Stará Ľubovňa
1.04

Lokomotíva Zvolen creates 53% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.47
Stará Ľubovňa
0.71

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.37
Stará Ľubovňa
1.71

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Stará Ľubovňa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
75%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Stará Ľubovňa
75%
Draw or Stará Ľubovňa
50%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
26%
Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
80%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
47%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
21%
Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals
65%
Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals
28%
Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
67%
Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Stará Ľubovňa away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.47 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Stará Ľubovňa attack 0.71 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
50%
level
25%
Stará Ľubovňa scores more
25%

Lokomotíva Zvolen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lokomotíva Zvolen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Stará Ľubovňa

Stará Ľubovňa beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 3-0 in 2. liga on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen in Zvolen.