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Star Starachowice vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
8/26/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Alitu Ożarów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Star Starachowice56%
×Draw22%
Sokół Sieniawa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Star Starachowice
1.94
Sokół Sieniawa
1.14

Star Starachowice creates 70% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 71 away

creates per match

Star Starachowice
1.80
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Star Starachowice
1.00
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Star Starachowice+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Star Starachowice ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Star Starachowice or draw
78%
Star Starachowice or Sokół Sieniawa
78%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
44%

Winning margin

Star Starachowice wins by 2+
33%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Star Starachowice 1+ goals
86%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
58%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
30%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
68%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
32%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
72%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Star Starachowice at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Star Starachowice attack 1.80 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Star Starachowice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Star Starachowice scores more
56%
level
22%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
22%

Star Starachowice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Star Starachowice vs Sokół Sieniawa

Star Starachowice beat Sokół Sieniawa 6-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Alitu Ożarów in Ożarów.