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Sokół Sieniawa vs Star Starachowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
FT
0 – 1
Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa34%
×Draw25%
Star Starachowice41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Sieniawa
1.36
Star Starachowice
1.52

Star Starachowice creates 12% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.46
Star Starachowice
1.41

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.63
Star Starachowice
1.27

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par
Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Star Starachowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw
59%
Sokół Sieniawa or Star Starachowice
75%
Draw or Star Starachowice
66%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
15%
Star Starachowice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
74%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
39%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
16%
Star Starachowice 1+ goals
78%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
45%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
45%
Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Star Starachowice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Star Starachowice attack 1.41 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more
34%
level
25%
Star Starachowice scores more
41%

Star Starachowice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Sieniawa vs Star Starachowice

Star Starachowice beat Sokół Sieniawa 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sieniawa.