Star Starachowice 0–3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Star Starachowice

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

10/18/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Alitu Ożarów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Star Starachowice44%

×Draw25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Star StarachowiceExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.27

Star Starachowice

1.54

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.27

Star Starachowice creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 89 away

1.80

creates per match

1.53

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Star Starachowice

1.80

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.53

allows per match

Star Starachowice

1.00

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Star Starachowice ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Star Starachowice or draw

69%

Star Starachowice or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

75%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

56%

Winning margin

Star Starachowice wins by 2+

22%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Star Starachowice 1+ goals

79%

Star Starachowice 2+ goals

45%

Star Starachowice 3+ goals

20%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

72%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

36%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Star Starachowice (draw refunded)

58%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Star Starachowice at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Star Starachowice attack 1.80 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Star Starachowice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Star Starachowice scores more

44%

level

25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

31%

Star Starachowice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff