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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Star Starachowice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
1/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg66%
×Draw17%
Star Starachowice17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.60
Star Starachowice
1.25

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 108% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
3.00
Star Starachowice
1.20

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29
Star Starachowice
2.20

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Star Starachowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
83%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Star Starachowice
83%
Draw or Star Starachowice
34%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
45%
Star Starachowice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
92%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
73%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
47%
Star Starachowice 1+ goals
71%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
36%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
80%
Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 3.00 + Star Starachowice defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.60

Star Starachowice attack 1.20 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
66%
level
17%
Star Starachowice scores more
17%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2–2 Star Starachowice

Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Star Starachowice drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 28, 2026.