Star Starachowice vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
Star Starachowice48%
Podhale Nowy Targ28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Star Starachowice creates 39% more chances
Season form · 51 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Star Starachowice ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Star Starachowice at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches
Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Star Starachowice attack 1.80 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.65
Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Star Starachowice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Star Starachowice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Avia Świdnik
KSZO 1929
Chełmianka Chełm
Korona Kielce IIStar Starachowice
Czarni Połaniec
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wisła Kraków II
Wisłoka Dębica
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Naprzód
Sokół Kolb.
Stal Kraśnik
Cracovia Kraków II
Świdniczanka Świdnik
Sparta KWIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Star Starachowice host Podhale Nowy Targ on Saturday, 24 August 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the III Liga - Group 4 2020/2021 season.
III Liga - Group 4: Star Starachowice 1–0 Podhale Nowy Targ
Star Starachowice beat Podhale Nowy Targ 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 24, 2024.
The match was played at Stadion Alitu Ożarów in Ożarów.