Podhale Nowy Targ 0–3 Star Starachowice

Podhale Nowy Targ

FT

0 – 3

Star Starachowice

11/25/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ44%

×Draw25%

Star Starachowice31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podhale Nowy TargExpected goals in this matchStar Starachowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.25

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.55

Star Starachowice

1.25

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 24% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 51 away

1.83

creates per match

1.41

1.08

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.83

Star Starachowice

1.41

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.08

Star Starachowice

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Star Starachowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw

69%

Podhale Nowy Targ or Star Starachowice

75%

Draw or Star Starachowice

56%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+

22%

Star Starachowice wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals

79%

Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals

46%

Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals

20%

Star Starachowice 1+ goals

71%

Star Starachowice 2+ goals

36%

Star Starachowice 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)

59%

Star Starachowice (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Star Starachowice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.55

Star Starachowice attack 1.41 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more

44%

level

25%

Star Starachowice scores more

31%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff