Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Staphorst vs Sparta Nijkerk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Staphorst
Staphorst
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
5/27/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 34Sportpark Het Noorderslag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Staphorst40%
×Draw23%
Sparta Nijkerk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staphorst
1.70
Sparta Nijkerk
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 97 away

creates per match

Staphorst
1.82
Sparta Nijkerk
1.87

allows per match

Staphorst
1.37
Sparta Nijkerk
1.58

finishing

Staphorst+0.00on par
Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staphorst ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Staphorst or draw
63%
Staphorst or Sparta Nijkerk
77%
Draw or Sparta Nijkerk
60%

Winning margin

Staphorst wins by 2+
21%
Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Staphorst 1+ goals
82%
Staphorst 2+ goals
51%
Staphorst 3+ goals
24%
Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
80%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
48%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Staphorst (draw refunded)
52%
Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staphorst at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.37 · 71 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staphorst attack 1.82 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + Staphorst defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Staphorst scores more
40%
level
23%
Sparta Nijkerk scores more
37%

Staphorst at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Staphorst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Staphorst vs Sparta Nijkerk

Staphorst and Sparta Nijkerk drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Noorderslag in Staphorst.