Sparta Nijkerk 3–2 Staphorst: Result & Stats

Sparta Nijkerk

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Staphorst

3/16/2024

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 25Sportpark De Ebbenhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk56%

×Draw21%

Staphorst23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta NijkerkExpected goals in this matchStaphorst

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.27

Sparta Nijkerk

2.07

Staphorst

1.27

Sparta Nijkerk creates 63% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 71 away

2.29

creates per match

1.32

1.21

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk

2.29

Staphorst

1.32

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk

1.21

Staphorst

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Staphorst+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

Staphorst →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw

77%

Sparta Nijkerk or Staphorst

79%

Draw or Staphorst

44%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+

33%

Staphorst wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals

87%

Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals

61%

Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals

34%

Staphorst 1+ goals

72%

Staphorst 2+ goals

36%

Staphorst 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)

71%

Staphorst (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Staphorst away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + Staphorst defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.07

Staphorst attack 1.32 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more

56%

level

21%

Staphorst scores more

23%

Sparta Nijkerk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff