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Stanišić vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Stanišić
Stanišić
FT
0 – 6
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
10/30/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Fudbalski Teren FK Stanišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stanišić27%
×Draw25%
Radnički Sombor48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stanišić
1.14
Radnički Sombor
1.61

Radnički Sombor creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

Stanišić
0.80
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Stanišić
1.93
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Stanišić+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stanišić ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stanišić or draw
52%
Stanišić or Radnički Sombor
75%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
73%

Winning margin

Stanišić wins by 2+
11%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Stanišić 1+ goals
68%
Stanišić 2+ goals
32%
Stanišić 3+ goals
11%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
80%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
48%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stanišić (draw refunded)
36%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stanišić at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stanišić attack 0.80 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Stanišić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stanišić scores more
27%
level
25%
Radnički Sombor scores more
48%

Radnički Sombor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stanišić vs Radnički Sombor

Radnički Sombor beat Stanišić 6-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Fudbalski Teren FK Stanišić in Stanišić.