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Radnički Sombor vs Stanišić — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
CANC
15:00
Stanišić
Stanišić
5/20/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Radnički Sombor75%
×Draw15%
Stanišić9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
2.51
Stanišić
0.75

Radnički Sombor creates 235% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 14 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Stanišić
0.57

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Stanišić
2.86

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Stanišić+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Stanišić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
91%
Radnički Sombor or Stanišić
85%
Draw or Stanišić
25%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
53%
Stanišić wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
92%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
71%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
45%
Stanišić 1+ goals
53%
Stanišić 2+ goals
17%
Stanišić 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
89%
Stanišić (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Stanišić away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Stanišić defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.51

Stanišić attack 0.57 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
75%
level
15%
Stanišić scores more
9%

Radnički Sombor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Radnički Sombor vs Stanišić — Match Preview

Radnički Sombor face Stanišić on May 20, 2023 in this Srpska Liga - Vojvodina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Radnički Sombor host Stanišić at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.