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Stanišić vs Jedinstvo Stara Pazova — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Stanišić
Stanišić
FT
0 – 2
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
4/15/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 22Fudbalski Teren FK Stanišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stanišić33%
×Draw25%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stanišić
1.29
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.48

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 78 away

creates per match

Stanišić
0.80
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.03

allows per match

Stanišić
1.93
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.78

finishing

Stanišić+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stanišić ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stanišić or draw
58%
Stanišić or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
75%
Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
67%

Winning margin

Stanišić wins by 2+
14%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stanišić 1+ goals
72%
Stanišić 2+ goals
37%
Stanišić 3+ goals
14%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
77%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
43%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stanišić (draw refunded)
44%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stanišić at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stanišić attack 0.80 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Stanišić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stanišić scores more
33%
level
25%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
42%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Stanišić 0–2 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova beat Stanišić 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Fudbalski Teren FK Stanišić in Stanišić.