Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 4–0 Stanišić: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stanišić

9/24/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova68%

×Draw19%

Stanišić13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo Stara PazovaExpected goals in this matchStanišić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.80

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

2.12

Stanišić

0.80

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 165% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 14 away

1.38

creates per match

0.57

1.04

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.38

Stanišić

0.57

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.04

Stanišić

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Stanišić+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Stanišić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw

87%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Stanišić

81%

Draw or Stanišić

32%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

43%

Stanišić wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

88%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

62%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

35%

Stanišić 1+ goals

55%

Stanišić 2+ goals

19%

Stanišić 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

84%

Stanišić (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Stanišić away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Stanišić defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.12

Stanišić attack 0.57 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

68%

level

19%

Stanišić scores more

13%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff