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Stanišić vs Dinamo Pančevo — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Stanišić
Stanišić
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
4/30/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Fudbalski Teren FK Stanišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stanišić30%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Pančevo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stanišić
1.20
Dinamo Pančevo
1.53

Dinamo Pančevo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Stanišić
0.80
Dinamo Pančevo
1.13

allows per match

Stanišić
1.93
Dinamo Pančevo
1.60

finishing

Stanišić+0.00on par
Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stanišić ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stanišić or draw
55%
Stanišić or Dinamo Pančevo
75%
Draw or Dinamo Pančevo
70%

Winning margin

Stanišić wins by 2+
12%
Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stanišić 1+ goals
70%
Stanišić 2+ goals
34%
Stanišić 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stanišić (draw refunded)
40%
Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stanišić at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stanišić attack 0.80 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Stanišić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stanišić scores more
30%
level
25%
Dinamo Pančevo scores more
45%

Dinamo Pančevo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stanišić vs Dinamo Pančevo

Stanišić and Dinamo Pančevo drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Fudbalski Teren FK Stanišić in Stanišić.