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Dinamo Pančevo vs Stanišić — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
4 – 1
Stanišić
Stanišić
10/9/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo69%
×Draw18%
Stanišić13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
2.29
Stanišić
0.89

Dinamo Pančevo creates 157% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Stanišić
0.57

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Stanišić
2.86

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Stanišić+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Stanišić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
87%
Dinamo Pančevo or Stanišić
82%
Draw or Stanišić
31%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
45%
Stanišić wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
90%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
66%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
40%
Stanišić 1+ goals
59%
Stanišić 2+ goals
22%
Stanišić 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
84%
Stanišić (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Stanišić away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Stanišić defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.29

Stanišić attack 0.57 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
69%
level
18%
Stanišić scores more
13%

Dinamo Pančevo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dinamo Pančevo 4–1 Stanišić

Dinamo Pančevo beat Stanišić 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.