Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Standard Liege W vs Mechelen W — Super League Women 2018

Standard Liege W
Standard Liege W
FT
8 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Mechelen W
Mechelen W
12/9/2023Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 11Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Standard Liege W69%
×Draw17%
Mechelen W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege W
2.49
Mechelen W
1.04

Standard Liege W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 26 away

creates per match

Standard Liege W
2.20
Mechelen W
1.00

allows per match

Standard Liege W
1.08
Mechelen W
2.77

finishing

Standard Liege W+0.00on par
Mechelen W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege W ↓

Mechelen W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Standard Liege W or draw
86%
Standard Liege W or Mechelen W
83%
Draw or Mechelen W
31%

Winning margin

Standard Liege W wins by 2+
46%
Mechelen W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Standard Liege W 1+ goals
92%
Standard Liege W 2+ goals
71%
Standard Liege W 3+ goals
45%
Mechelen W 1+ goals
65%
Mechelen W 2+ goals
28%
Mechelen W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege W (draw refunded)
83%
Mechelen W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Mechelen W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege W attack 2.20 + Mechelen W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.49

Mechelen W attack 1.00 + Standard Liege W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Standard Liege W scores more
69%
level
17%
Mechelen W scores more
14%

Standard Liege W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Standard Liege W vs Mechelen W

Standard Liege W beat Mechelen W 8-1 in Super League Women on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Luik.