Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mechelen W vs Standard Liege W — Super League Women 2018

Mechelen W
Mechelen W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Standard Liege W
Standard Liege W
9/17/2022Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 5Jeugdacademie Mechelen Terrein 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mechelen W26%
×Draw22%
Standard Liege W51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechelen W
1.30
Standard Liege W
1.90

Standard Liege W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 103 away

creates per match

Mechelen W
1.19
Standard Liege W
1.76

allows per match

Mechelen W
2.04
Standard Liege W
1.41

finishing

Mechelen W+0.00on par
Standard Liege W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechelen W ↓

Standard Liege W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mechelen W or draw
49%
Mechelen W or Standard Liege W
78%
Draw or Standard Liege W
74%

Winning margin

Mechelen W wins by 2+
11%
Standard Liege W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Mechelen W 1+ goals
73%
Mechelen W 2+ goals
37%
Mechelen W 3+ goals
14%
Standard Liege W 1+ goals
85%
Standard Liege W 2+ goals
56%
Standard Liege W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Mechelen W (draw refunded)
34%
Standard Liege W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechelen W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

Standard Liege W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechelen W attack 1.19 + Standard Liege W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Standard Liege W attack 1.76 + Mechelen W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mechelen W scores more
26%
level
22%
Standard Liege W scores more
51%

Standard Liege W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Mechelen W 0–4 Standard Liege W

Standard Liege W beat Mechelen W 4-0 in Super League Women on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Jeugdacademie Mechelen Terrein 1 in Mechelen.