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Standard Liege W vs Eendracht Aalst W — Super League Women 2018

Standard Liege W
Standard Liege W
FT
2 – 0
Eendracht Aalst W
Eendracht Aalst W
1/30/2021Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 12Académie Robert Louis-Dreyfus - Terrain 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Standard Liege W70%
×Draw16%
Eendracht Aalst W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege W
2.64
Eendracht Aalst W
1.08

Standard Liege W creates 144% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 40 away

creates per match

Standard Liege W
2.20
Eendracht Aalst W
1.07

allows per match

Standard Liege W
1.08
Eendracht Aalst W
3.08

finishing

Standard Liege W+0.00on par
Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege W ↓

Eendracht Aalst W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Standard Liege W or draw
87%
Standard Liege W or Eendracht Aalst W
84%
Draw or Eendracht Aalst W
30%

Winning margin

Standard Liege W wins by 2+
49%
Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Standard Liege W 1+ goals
93%
Standard Liege W 2+ goals
74%
Standard Liege W 3+ goals
48%
Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals
66%
Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals
29%
Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege W (draw refunded)
84%
Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Eendracht Aalst W away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege W attack 2.20 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.64

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.07 + Standard Liege W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Standard Liege W scores more
70%
level
16%
Eendracht Aalst W scores more
13%

Standard Liege W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Standard Liege W vs Eendracht Aalst W

Standard Liege W beat Eendracht Aalst W 2-0 in Super League Women on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Académie Robert Louis-Dreyfus - Terrain 5 in Angleur.