Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eendracht Aalst W vs Standard Liege W — Super League Women 2018

Eendracht Aalst W
Eendracht Aalst W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Standard Liege W
Standard Liege W
12/18/2021Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 13Het Pierre Cornelisstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Eendracht Aalst W23%
×Draw22%
Standard Liege W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eendracht Aalst W
1.23
Standard Liege W
2.02

Standard Liege W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 103 away

creates per match

Eendracht Aalst W
1.05
Standard Liege W
1.76

allows per match

Eendracht Aalst W
2.27
Standard Liege W
1.41

finishing

Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par
Standard Liege W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eendracht Aalst W ↓

Standard Liege W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eendracht Aalst W or draw
45%
Eendracht Aalst W or Standard Liege W
78%
Draw or Standard Liege W
77%

Winning margin

Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+
9%
Standard Liege W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals
71%
Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals
35%
Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals
13%
Standard Liege W 1+ goals
87%
Standard Liege W 2+ goals
60%
Standard Liege W 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)
29%
Standard Liege W (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eendracht Aalst W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

Standard Liege W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.05 + Standard Liege W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Standard Liege W attack 1.76 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eendracht Aalst W scores more
23%
level
22%
Standard Liege W scores more
55%

Standard Liege W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eendracht Aalst W vs Standard Liege W

Standard Liege W beat Eendracht Aalst W 3-1 in Super League Women on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Het Pierre Cornelisstadion in Aalst.