Standard Liege 1–3 Oostende: Result & Stats

Standard Liege

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Oostende

M. Balikwisha 13'

K. Vandendriessche 61', 6'

I. Boonen 50'

5/22/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 6Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Standard Liege50%

×Draw25%

Oostende25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Standard LiegeExpected goals in this matchOostende

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.05

Standard Liege

1.59

Oostende

1.05

Standard Liege creates 51% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 83 away

1.32

creates per match

0.96

1.14

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Standard Liege

1.32

Oostende

0.96

allows per match

Standard Liege

1.14

Oostende

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Oostende →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw

75%

Standard Liege or Oostende

75%

Draw or Oostende

50%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+

26%

Oostende wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals

80%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

47%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

21%

Oostende 1+ goals

65%

Oostende 2+ goals

28%

Oostende 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

67%

Oostende (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.14 · 153 matches

Oostende away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.32 + Oostende defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Oostende attack 0.96 + Standard Liege defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Standard Liege scores more

50%

level

25%

Oostende scores more

25%

Standard Liege at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Kevin Vandendriessche

Oostende · M

8.9

Match Events

6'

K. Vandendriessche

13'

M. Balikwisha

46'

R. D'Haese← A. Tanghe

50'

I. Boonen↳ K. Vandendriessche

56'

M. Thiam← M. Thiam

59'

Z. Vanheusden← Z. Vanheusden

61'

K. Vandendriessche↳ M. Thiam

63'

J. Klauss

71'

M. D'Arpino← F. Marquet

82'

L. Jans← L. Jans

82'

E. Shamir← D. Pavlovic

85'

K. Vandendriessche← E. Patoulidis

86'

90'

90+1'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StandardOostende

Overview

48%Possession52%

4Total Shots14

1Corners6

21Fouls18

Shots

4Total Shots14

2On Target7

2Off Target6

0Blocked1

3Inside Box9

1Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

446Total Passes468

341Accurate Passes357

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1

Jupiler Pro League: Standard Liege 1–3 Oostende

Oostende beat Standard Liege 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on May 22, 2021.

Goals: K. Vandendriessche (6', 61'), M. Balikwisha (13'), I. Boonen (50').

Oostende controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Luik.

Standard Liege vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Jupiler Pro League: Standard Liege 1–3 Oostende