Oostende 1–0 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Standard Liege

Kenny Rocha Santos 28'

2/19/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 28Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Oostende37%

×Draw25%

Standard Liege38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.48

Oostende

1.45

Standard Liege

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 152 away

1.34

creates per match

1.19

1.78

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Oostende

1.34

Standard Liege

1.19

allows per match

Oostende

1.78

Standard Liege

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

62%

Oostende or Standard Liege

75%

Draw or Standard Liege

63%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

17%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

77%

Oostende 2+ goals

42%

Oostende 3+ goals

18%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

77%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

43%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

49%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + Standard Liege defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Standard Liege attack 1.19 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oostende scores more

37%

level

25%

Standard Liege scores more

38%

Standard Liege at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Kenny Rocha Santos

Oostende · M

7.9

Match Events

26'

Renaud Emond

28'

Kenny Rocha Santos

34'

Mathieu Cafaro

46'

A. Tapsoba← D. Drăguş

53'

Nicolas Raskin

62'

Brecht Capon

64'

M. Carcela-González← A. Dønnum

64'

D. Pavlović← S. Bastien

73'

N. Bätzner← K. Duncan

73'

A. Tanghe← Kenny Rocha Santos

73'

N. Nkounkou← A. Calut

79'

A. Albanese← T. Ndicka

79'

T. Ambrose← M. Gueye

81'

Merveille Bokadi

86'

Niels Nkounkou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeStandard

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots6

4Corners5

14Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots6

5On Target0

7Off Target5

3Blocked1

7Inside Box2

8Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

383Total Passes435

268Accurate Passes322

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2