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Standard Liege vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Standard Liege
Standard Liege
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
12/22/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 20Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Standard Liege48%
×Draw25%
Oostende26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege
1.56
Oostende
1.08

Standard Liege creates 44% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 86 away

creates per match

Standard Liege
1.32
Oostende
1.02

allows per match

Standard Liege
1.14
Oostende
1.79

finishing

Standard Liege+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw
74%
Standard Liege or Oostende
75%
Draw or Oostende
52%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+
25%
Oostende wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals
79%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
46%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
21%
Oostende 1+ goals
66%
Oostende 2+ goals
29%
Oostende 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)
65%
Oostende (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.14 · 153 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.32 + Oostende defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Oostende attack 1.02 + Standard Liege defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Standard Liege scores more
48%
level
25%
Oostende scores more
26%

Standard Liege at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Standard Liege vs Oostende

Standard Liege beat Oostende 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Maurice Dufrasne in Liege.