Standard Liege 0–0 Borussia Dortmund

Standard Liege

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia Dortmund

1/7/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Standard Liege23%

×Draw20%

Borussia Dortmund57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Standard LiegeExpected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.29

Standard Liege

1.40

Borussia Dortmund

2.29

Borussia Dortmund creates 64% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.64

creates per match

3.50

1.09

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Standard Liege

1.64

Borussia Dortmund

3.50

allows per match

Standard Liege

1.09

Borussia Dortmund

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Borussia Dortmund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw

43%

Standard Liege or Borussia Dortmund

80%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund

77%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+

10%

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals

75%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

41%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

17%

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

90%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

66%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

29%

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.64 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Borussia Dortmund attack 3.50 + Standard Liege defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Standard Liege scores more

23%

level

20%

Borussia Dortmund scores more

57%

Borussia Dortmund at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff