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Borussia Dortmund vs Standard Liege — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
1/9/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 1Banús Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Borussia Dortmund35%
×Draw19%
Standard Liege45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund
2.15
Standard Liege
2.43

Standard Liege creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund
3.29
Standard Liege
3.00

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund
1.86
Standard Liege
1.00

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par
Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

Standard Liege →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw
55%
Borussia Dortmund or Standard Liege
81%
Draw or Standard Liege
65%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
19%
Standard Liege wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
88%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
63%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
36%
Standard Liege 1+ goals
91%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
69%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
44%
Standard Liege (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 3.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 3.29 + Standard Liege defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Standard Liege attack 3.00 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more
35%
level
19%
Standard Liege scores more
45%

Standard Liege at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund vs Standard Liege

Borussia Dortmund and Standard Liege drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Banús Football Center in Marbella.