Standard Liege 2–1 Akhisarspor: Result & Stats

Standard Liege

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Akhisarspor

10/4/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Standard Liege75%

×Draw15%

Akhisarspor10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Standard LiegeExpected goals in this matchAkhisarspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

0.83

Standard Liege

2.58

Akhisarspor

0.83

Standard Liege creates 211% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

1.82

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Standard Liege

1.82

Akhisarspor

0.67

allows per match

Standard Liege

1.00

Akhisarspor

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Akhisarspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Akhisarspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw

90%

Standard Liege or Akhisarspor

85%

Draw or Akhisarspor

25%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+

53%

Akhisarspor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals

92%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

72%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

47%

Akhisarspor 1+ goals

56%

Akhisarspor 2+ goals

20%

Akhisarspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

88%

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Akhisarspor away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.82 + Akhisarspor defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Akhisarspor attack 0.67 + Standard Liege defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Standard Liege scores more

75%

level

15%

Akhisarspor scores more

10%

Standard Liege at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff