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Akhisarspor vs Standard Liege — UEFA Europa League 2018

Akhisarspor
Akhisarspor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
12/13/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6Spor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Akhisarspor50%
×Draw25%
Standard Liege25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhisarspor
1.61
Standard Liege
1.06

Akhisarspor creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Akhisarspor
0.67
Standard Liege
0.78

allows per match

Akhisarspor
1.33
Standard Liege
2.56

finishing

Akhisarspor+0.00on par
Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhisarspor ↓

Standard Liege →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Akhisarspor or draw
75%
Akhisarspor or Standard Liege
75%
Draw or Standard Liege
50%

Winning margin

Akhisarspor wins by 2+
26%
Standard Liege wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Akhisarspor 1+ goals
80%
Akhisarspor 2+ goals
48%
Akhisarspor 3+ goals
22%
Standard Liege 1+ goals
65%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
29%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)
67%
Standard Liege (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhisarspor at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhisarspor attack 0.67 + Standard Liege defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Standard Liege attack 0.78 + Akhisarspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Akhisarspor scores more
50%
level
25%
Standard Liege scores more
25%

Akhisarspor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Akhisarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akhisarspor vs Standard Liege

Akhisarspor and Standard Liege drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa League on December 13, 2018.

The match was played at Spor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu in Akhisar.